Whenever you trade a stock, you’re saying that you’re smarter than the person on the other side of the trade, which is generally not true.
And when you think that you can time the market, you’re saying that you’re smarter than the collective wisdom of the market, which is not true more than 90% of the time.
And if that’s not overconfidence, I don’t know what is.
Dr. William Bernstein in At the Money: Changing Your Behavior For Better Investing
In other words, don’t buy individual stocks, don’t time the market!
I also recommend listening to the whole, short episode here:
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