Expert predictions


I am generally skeptical about experts and their forecasts.

The following quote from a humble, expert economist I respect and admire, drives my point:

…there’s something I learnt in this field three to four decades ago. It doesn’t matter how many ifs, buts and caveats one sticks around a subject, people still want to know what your forecast is for it. So, much as I personally wouldn’t assign more than a 10% chance of this prediction being correct…

New Zealand house price prediction for 2022, by Tony Alexander

Tony is predicting New Zealand house price growth. But I believe his thoughts about predictions and forecasting are broadly true with experts in many other fields.


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